Why I'm taking the over on Tennessee in 2026

Every August I do the same thing. Pull up the schedule, go game by game, write down a number. Then in December I find out how wrong I was.

This year the number is 9-3.

Nobody agrees with me. FanDuel set Tennessee's win total at 7.5. ESPN's Football Power Index projects 7.3 and gives us a 20.4% shot at the Playoff. The preseason AP poll put us 20th. The market has spent three straight offseasons lowering its opinion of this program, and it has had decent reasons each time.

Start with why I'm probably wrong

We're breaking in a quarterback with almost no college snaps. George MacIntyre has nine career pass attempts. Faizon Brandon is a true freshman, five stars or not. As of this week Heupel still hadn't named a starter, which tells you the staff is no more certain than the rest of us.

The schedule also got worse. The SEC went to nine conference games, so the soft November week is gone. Texas comes to Neyland. Alabama comes to Neyland. Texas A&M is a road trip in November. That's three top-15 opponents before you get to LSU on Senior Day.

And the win total has fallen every year since 2024, from 9.5 to 8.5 to 7.5. If you drew a line through those three dots you'd land about where Vegas landed.

Where I think the projections break

Preseason numbers treat a season like one fixed thing. Twelve games, one team, one talent level, multiply it out.

Quarterbacks don't work that way.

A freshman in September and the same freshman in November are not the same player. The September version is still thinking about protection calls. The November version throws his second read on rhythm because he's seen the coverage eleven times.

So look at where the hard games actually fall. Texas is September 26th, when we'll be at our worst. Alabama is October 17th, right in the middle. LSU is November 21st, by which point our quarterback has ten starts behind him. Texas A&M on the road is the one game where the timing and the opponent both go against us.

Heupel's record matters here too, and I think people undersell it. Top 20 in total offense in all eight of his seasons as a head coach. Top 10 in scoring offense in six of them. He's done it with pocket passers, dual threats, transfers, freshmen, and guys nobody else recruited. Eight years of that is a better bet than a preseason poll.

Hot take No. 1: Faizon Brandon starts, and it isn't close by October

I know ESPN picked MacIntyre. I know he's the safe answer, and I know what "safe" is worth to a coaching staff in Year 6.

I'm taking Brandon anyway.

Part of that is what happened in the spring, where MacIntyre was inconsistent enough that the job stayed open through the summer. Part of it is that Brandon was the No. 1 overall prospect in the country and Tennessee did not sign him to redshirt him behind a guy with nine career attempts. But mostly it's that Heupel's offense has always been willing to live with a young quarterback's mistakes if the arm talent raises the ceiling. That's the whole bet in Knoxville right now.

The version of this I'd put money on: Brandon takes the first snap against Furman, both guys play in September, and by the Alabama game nobody is asking the question anymore.

If MacIntyre wins the job and holds it, my 9-3 probably becomes 8-4. The floor is higher with him. The ceiling is the only thing that makes this season interesting.

Hot take No. 2: we have the best receiver room in the country

This is the one I'll defend the loudest, and the one national media has been slowest to catch up on. Somebody at SI ran a top receivers list this summer and left both of our guys off it entirely.

Braylon Staley was the SEC Freshman of the Year and a Freshman All-American. He led every freshman in the conference in catches (68), yards (837), and touchdowns (6). He did that as an eighteen-year-old in the best defensive conference in football.

Mike Matthews put up 53 catches for 813 yards as a sophomore.

Two guys over 800 yards, both returning, both still getting better, in a Heupel offense that has finished top 20 in total offense eight years running. Show me a room in the country that's clearly ahead of that. Ohio State and Oregon will get the votes because they always get the votes. I don't think they're better.

Kelsey Pope said something this offseason about being prouder of Matthews and Staley for their leadership than almost anyone he's coached, which is the sort of quote that sounds like coachspeak until you remember both of them are about to be asked to carry a freshman quarterback through September.

That's the part people are missing. A great receiver room is worth more to a young quarterback than to a veteran one. Veterans can create their own answers. Freshmen need somebody to be open.

So why 9-3 and not 10-2?

Everything I've written so far is about the offense, and the offense is why I'm over the number. The defense is why I'm not higher.

Three things give me pause, and they compound.

Jim Knowles is in Year 1. He came over from Penn State in December to replace Tim Banks and brought Anthony Poindexter with him, which is a real upgrade in the long run. But a first-year defensive install is a tax you pay in September and October, not one you avoid. Knowles has said out loud that his own defense is "a question mark" heading into the season. When the coordinator says that in August, believe him.

We don't have a proven edge rusher. Chaz Coleman came in from Penn State expected to be the answer there and was medically disqualified over the summer, which is a rough outcome for him personally and leaves us without the one guy who was supposed to win a down by himself. A defense installing a new scheme with no reliable pass rush is going to give up some numbers early.

And then Farooq. Edrees Farooq tore his patellar tendon in practice on August 14th and is out for the year. He started all 13 games last season and finished tied for third on the team with 76 tackles, and Knowles had already called him the best safety on the roster. Knowles runs a safety-driven defense. Losing your best safety in a safety-driven scheme, two weeks before the opener, in the coordinator's first year, is close to the worst-case version of that injury. Dejuan Lane and Dylan Lewis are now being asked to grow up fast.

None of that is fatal. All of it is exactly the kind of thing that turns a 24-21 win into a 27-24 loss, and you only need that to happen twice for 10-2 to become 9-3.

The twelve games

Sept 5, Furman, and Sept 19, Kennesaw State. Wins. Get the kid reps, get out healthy.

Sept 12, at Georgia Tech. Win. This is the trap game everybody's circling and I get why. First road start, hostile crowd, an opponent that's been better than its reputation for a while now. Taking us anyway, mostly because Bishop travels well and Georgia Tech has to prove it can stop the run.

Sept 26, Texas. Loss. Their first trip to Knoxville since 1969, which is the sort of fact that's been making the entire state lose its mind since the schedule dropped. Neyland will be the loudest it's been in a decade. And I still think the No. 5 team in the country beats a freshman making his fourth career start. I would love to be wrong about this one more than any game on the board.

Oct 3, Auburn. Win. 4-1.

Oct 10, at Arkansas. Win, by a possession, uncomfortably. Fayetteville is annoying and this is exactly the kind of game that gets away from a defense still learning a new scheme.

Oct 17, Alabama. Loss, and I hated writing it down. Third Saturday in October, in Neyland, and I can't talk myself into it. Alabama at No. 13 with a settled quarterback, against us at the exact midpoint of a development curve on both sides of the ball. 5-2.

Oct 24, at South Carolina. Win. Here's where I think the curve starts paying off. Coming off Alabama, bye week the following Saturday, and a quarterback who has now taken enough hits to stop flinching.

Nov 7, Kentucky. Win. Bowl eligible with three to play.

Nov 14, at Texas A&M. Loss. Eighth in the country, on the road, in November. Our worst matchup of the year and it isn't close. 7-3.

Nov 21, LSU. Win, and this is the game I'm most confident about among the hard ones, which I realize sounds insane about the No. 11 team in the country. Senior Day. Ten starts of experience. Staley and Matthews against a secondary that has to pick one. If this season has a signature win, it's this one.

Nov 28, at Vanderbilt. Win. Vanderbilt stopped being a punchline a couple of years ago and I'm not writing this one in pen, but 9-3 feels right and this is the game that gets us there.

Three losses, all to teams ranked 13th or better in the preseason. Two of them to the top eight. By any measure other than what a Tennessee fan wants to hear in August, that's a good year.

What 9-3 actually buys you

A seat in the Playoff conversation. Probably not a seat in the field.

With twelve teams, 9-3 with a win over LSU and a close loss to Texas puts you in the room while the committee argues. It doesn't get you in. I'm okay with that, because the thing I actually want out of this season is a quarterback who's unquestionably the answer going into 2027, a receiver room that finally gets its national due, and a defense that looks like a Knowles defense by November instead of a work in progress. Win nine games doing that and next year's ceiling is higher than anything on this year's board.

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I spend most of my working life telling people that a confident forecast built on thin data is usually just a preference with a spreadsheet attached. So I should be honest about what this is. I picked a number I liked and then found twelve games that agreed with me.

The one thing I'll say for it is that I wrote it all down. The record, the quarterback, the receivers. Come December you can check every bit of it, which is more than most August takes are willing to offer.

Go Vols.